- The UK topped the world in study visa issuance volume for the first time since 2022, as competitors flounder
- Germany and France have become part of a ‘big six’ set of study destinations with similar enrolment numbers
- Canada’s decline is marked by Germany and France surpassing new enrolments across all study levels
- US, Canada and Australia’s fall in market share has been more stark than the UK
The PIE News and Higher Insights have been analysing new enrolment data during 2025, with some surprising results.
Our analysis reveals that new study visas issued to international students by the traditional ‘big 4’ study destinations – the US, Canada, the UK and Australia – declined by approximately 38% between 2023 and 2025, as a result of disruptive national immigration policies.
The UK, despite experiencing a 32% decline in visa issuance in Q4 of 2025, appears to have issued the most new study visas across all levels in the year, taking it ahead of all three major competitors for the first time since 2022.
The UK previously benefitted from disruption to competitors during and immediately after the Covid-19 period. It would now appear that the UK is once again benefitting from caps and visa refusals rates from competitor countries.
Elsewhere, the decline is most pronounced in Canada, which issued 399,405 fewer visas to international students in 2025 compared to 2023.
As a result, both France and Germany appear to have surpassed Canada in the number of new international enrolments in 2025, expanding the traditional ‘big four’ to potentially a new ‘big six’ group of study destinations of similar size.
US immigration data is only available up to September 2025, so like-for-like comparison is difficult. Continued visa delays, blocked countries, and ongoing speculation about OPT and the now-confirmed changes to the duration of status, will all have only contributed to declining enrolments, meaning it is almost certain to have issued more than 100,000 fewer student visas in 2025 than the UK.
Other nations such as Korea, Japan, China and Malaysia have all shown strong growth in new enrolment in 2025, often named in the ‘big 14’ list of challenger destinations. More analysis is need to define the size and shape of these destinations in a rapidly changing new world order of study destinations.
The news will offer little relief to British universities, which are reporting mounting job cuts amid financial strain. The picture is similar in Canada, Australia and the US, where deep cuts are being made in response to the market contraction.
A new world order: visa issuance by study destination 2025 (all levels)
Analysis: Higher Insights
Find out 2025 study visa issuance across the big six at a glance.
- The UK
394,921 new study visas issued*
*According to official immigration statistics. This number is across all study levels, excluding short-term student visas or extensions (main applicant, sponsored study, no dependents) applying from outside of the UK. This is despite visa issuance falling by 32% in Q4 of 2025 in line with the winter university intake. - Australia
365,616 new study visas issued*
*According to official immigration statistics. Note, we have aligned Australia’s figures with northern hemisphere destinations and it includes all study levels and modes. If only off-shore new study visas are counted, then Australia’s figure would be much lower at 224,044. - The US
298,881 new study visas issued*
*According to official monthly nonimmigrant visa issuance statistics. Note, the US has stopped releasing immigration data in this area after October 2025. Therefore we have used the data from October 2024 to September 2025 for analysis. Projections by NAFSA and JB International based on the Fall 2025 Snapshot on International Student Enrolment revealed a 17% decline in new student enrolments. - France
116,835 new student residence permits issued*
*According to official immigration statistics from the direction générale des étrangers en France. In 2025, the initial issuance of student residence permits rose again (5.3%) following a year of stagnation. - Germany
116,600 first year international students*
*According to this press release from DAAD (German Academic Exchange Service) the number of international first-year students in Germany reached a new high of 116,600 in 2025. This number is likely to include visa-free European students. According to national visa statistics the number of international students issued a visa was 99,388. - Canada
108,250 new study visas issued*
*According to IRCC updates on temporary residents and the BONARD student visa dashboard. The PIE previously reported on Canada recording a 60% fall in new international student arrivals in February 2025.
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